Thursday, June 12, 2008

Event 23 breakdown

[UPDATE: finishes scaled to reflect the 1300 entries]
2ish hours away now, follow all the excitement here or on
Here's my quick assessment of our chances, assuming 2000 runners:

Todd: Plays rock solid thru round 2 and builds a better-than-average chip stack. Get's mildly crippled after opponent's semi-bluff hits. Pushes shortly after knowing there is good golf to watch. Finish: 961

Randy: Hangover and temptation to drink more have him thinking this is not the big event and not worth his time. He can clear his likely payout next Wednesday between 5:22 and 5:47. Finish: 802

Tim: Horribly hungover and extremely gassy, he does not play a hand for 4 hours. Makes a move with pocket 7s and gets called in 3 spots. Spikes 7 on flop and is temporary chip leader. Gets Fawcett syndrome and tries to outplay an Asian pro at some point, gets crushed and moves all in next hand with A9. Finish: 152

Troy: Mistaken for a European train conductor, his table has a very hard time figuring him out. Finish: 280

Celeste: Freerolling and hungry for anything with marinara sauce on it, he plays loose early and donk's his way to a big stack. Makes great laydowns for 5 hours and then overplays QQ near dinner time. After playing for 62 hours yesterday and bubbling, he sucks it up and tries to push thru. Small stack pushes with flush draw and hits against him. Finish: 177

Freeze: Never leaves hot blackjack table. Up $21,000 for the day.


Gentle Shane said...

I just read "...mistaken for a European train conductor" and crapped in my pants.

Is anyone a better blogger (or oddsmaker) than Matt Sommer? Fuck no.

Anonymous said...

He should be writing the back page for D Magazine, instead of that douchebag Marty Cortland.