Monday, February 19, 2007

Tunica Hand 2

In my earlier post, I eluded to an awful hand I played during event no. 12. Well, here it is:

We are in level three. Blinds are 50-100, and I’ve worked my starting stack from 2000TC up to 4200. I was down to 1600, but then I managed to get it all in on the flop against Wendell Barnes with an overpair to the board. He called with two overcards and a flush draw, but I managed to get lucky in the hand and hang on.

Seat 3 seemed to be a good, solid player who’d finished second in Event #9. Seat 1 was a wild man, anxious to get his chips in with any marginal hand. They both had around 8,000 in chips, leaders at the table. I was in seat 5. In the hand in question, Seat 3 is UTG, and Seat 1 is in the SB.

Seat 3 raises to $500. He had raised UTG one other time and showed down AQ to win the hand, but for some reason, I felt that was a rare, loose opening for him in that position. I felt he was very strong. I look down at pocket jacks. I call. Button calls. Seat 1 calls in the small blind. Big blind folds. 5 players to the flop, 2200 in the pot.

Flop is 762r. UTG leads out for 1500. I feel like he is very strong at this point. What’s your move? Results to come.


Gonz said...

Some problems here. I don't like calling with JJ for five times the blind if you've already decided that the preflop raiser is 1.) A solid player and 2.) "Very strong." Just calling here means you have precious little information about where you are in the hand regardless of how the flop comes. Plus, what might he play in that spot? You saw him show AQ before. So, at best, you figure to be in a coin flip situation. So early in a tourney, I don't like coin flips. You probably want to raise or fold the hand right here.

I like the hand even less, though, after the flop. FIVE players in the hand, and three others to act after TBR. PLUS, UTG (Mr. Solid and Strong) has led out--1500 into a 2200 pot.

Most pressing: What does the bet by seat 3 indicate? Is it simply a continuation bet? Unlikely. If he's truly a solid player, would he under-bet the pot given the size of his pre-flop raise and the fact that four other players still have to act behind him? Would he do that if he missed the flop, or if he was unsure where he stood? I doubt it. Smells like an over-pair to me. Maybe top set (if his 500 pre-flop raise was meant solely to chase away the competition). Either way, a purely continuation bet doesn't seem to add up. Which means you're probably beat here, to say nothing of what the other three players might be waiting to clobber/donkey you with.

Because you don't know where you are in the hand, because of the pre-flop raise and the number of callers, because you figure seat 3 to be "very strong," because there are other players still to act behind you, you should probably fold this hand right now. If you don't, it could get very expensive on the next two streets.

I say fold it, cut your losses, and chalk it up to getting lost in the hand. Happens to everyone.

Gentle Shane said...

You've played passively to this point and put yourself in a jam. Flop looks harmless but Seat 3's bet isn't. You have to fold here, while secretly hating yourself for being such a pussy.

In retrospect, you should have raised seat 3 pre-flop to the tune of another $1000. He can only call you there with QQ,KK,AA or AK (ditto with the button and small blind). If he does you are in trouble. However, if he folds, you've increased your stack by 15 percent by putting him to the test.

The other concern is the SB. Sounds like he's Dan...and in that situation, you have to put Dan (and/or the Fake Dan) on 7-2. IN this case, it would help if you have Celeste or Todd railbirding you there so they can verbally scold Dan/Fake Dan for the next three hours.

Truly, if it was me, I probably push all-in pre-flop. If he calls and shows aces, I probably lean over to shake his hand, but instead pistol whip him with my .45. Then I shoot him in the head and piss on his bleeding skull.

Eric said...

I know how he played it, so I can't wait for the description. God, how do you ever win ANYTHING, The Fat Randy?

Ed said...

oh god. please don't let me draw Shane's table. i can't deal with the pressure of being pistol whipped.